Belmar's median dipped, but the town didn't get cheaper.
On closed sales through August 31, 2026, Belmar's single-family median fell against the prior-year window — but per-square-foot pricing rose and the median home traded smaller, so the softer headline reflects what sold, not a broad repricing. Active-listing and index reads carry later snapshots.
Belmar research starts with the mid-2026 release; we'll add more towns and notes as we cover them.
Scores are public, human-reviewed town signals on a 0–100 scale. For where a specific home sits against them, send us the address.
Read the median and the price-per-foot together: Belmar's median fell because the homes that sold ran smaller, while per-foot pricing rose. Measured on closed sales through August 31, 2026, that is a shift in the mix of what traded, not a broad repricing of the town.
- 01Belmar recorded 79 single-family sales over the trailing twelve months — enough depth to read the town, not a thin sample.
- 02The trailing-year median is $1,115,000, down ~6% from $1,187,500 in the prior-year window; over the same span median $/sqft moved from $623 to $694 (up ~11%) and the median traded home from 1,819 to 1,521 square feet (down ~16%).
- 03The town's structural reads are firm: Scarcity 95 and Liquidity 98 at high confidence, Affordability Stress 68.
- Whether active inventory builds off its current low base into the back half of the year.
- Whether the size mix of what sells shifts back toward larger homes, which would lift the headline median independent of price per foot.
- Rates and absorption: a sustained move in mortgage rates would show first in days-on-market, then in price.
Based on 79 trailing-12-month single-family sales (78 with recorded size for $/sqft), recent data vintage. Town-level aggregate, so conviction is capped below 'High'.
Belmar remains a scarcity-driven, fast-clearing market with resilient single-family pricing; the principal near-term question is whether scarcity holds and demand stays intact as financing costs persist.
What our research found this period.
Briarwood Research's current read is that Belmar is a scarcity-driven, fast-clearing market where pricing power rests on limited supply rather than affordability. The findings below are the evidence-backed conclusions behind that view; the risks and watch-items that would change it follow later in the report.
- Belmar's median sale price looks lower, but the town may not actually be cheaper — the median fell because smaller homes made up more of this year's sales, while the price per square foot rose.
- Scarcity, not affordability, remains Belmar's dominant pricing constraint despite elevated financing costs.
- 01Moderate confidenceSurprise
Belmar's median sale price looks lower, but the town may not actually be cheaper — the median fell because smaller homes made up more of this year's sales, while the price per square foot rose.
Evidence- The trailing-12-month median sale price is -6.1% year-over-year, to $1,115,000.
- But median home size is -16.4% while median $/sqft is +11.4% — smaller homes sold, at a higher price per foot.
- Computed over 78 trailing-12-month single-family sales with recorded size.
Alternative readings- A genuine softening in demand, not only a smaller mix of homes selling; price-per-foot controls for size but not for block or condition.
Median price -6.1% with median size -16.4% and median $/sqft +11.4%: a smaller typical home accounts for the median decline while per-foot values rose, so this reads as a composition shift rather than broad price deflation. Revisit if $/sqft turns negative.
Why it matters. A headline like “median down” reads as falling values, but here it mostly reflects a smaller mix of homes trading. On a size-adjusted, per-square-foot basis, values held up — so it is the number most likely to be misread.
- 02Moderate confidenceSurprise
Scarcity, not affordability, remains Belmar's dominant pricing constraint despite elevated financing costs.
Evidence- Scarcity reads 95/100 and Liquidity 98/100 — limited inventory, fast clearing.
- Affordability stress is only 68/100 on our scale even though financing costs are elevated.
- Median $/sqft is up +11.4% year-over-year in the comparison window, even with financing costs elevated.
Alternative readings- Compositional shift — smaller homes making up more of what sold
- Luxury concentration — a few high-end trades are carrying the averages
We currently favor the scarcity interpretation because median $/sqft — not only the mix — was higher year-over-year; a pure composition or luxury-concentration story would not lift $/sqft across the market. We will revisit this if inventory expands or the $/sqft gap closes.
Why it matters. It identifies the swing factor: on this read, inventory — not mortgage rates — is the variable most likely to change pricing power.
A standing read on Belmar's single-family market through 2026, anchored to closed sales through August 31, 2026, with active-listing and index reads carried into later snapshots: where 2026 started, what the sold record shows, and what the current evidence does and does not let us say. Refreshed as the record updates rather than fixed to a point in the year.
- Median sale price: $1,115,000 (trailing 12 months), down ~6% from $1,187,500.
- Median $/sqft: $694, up ~11% from $623 — pricing per foot did not follow the headline.
- Median size of a traded home: 1,521 sqft, down ~16% from 1,819 — smaller homes made up more of what sold.
At 98/100 the market reads exceptionally liquid: homes are clearing quickly relative to the active inventory, so a fairly priced listing should transact rather than linger. That is 3.9 up from the single prior published release (Δ +3.9) — a directional two-release comparison, not an index trend.
At 95/100 supply reads severely constrained: active listings are very low relative to the town's housing base, which keeps structural pressure under prices even when demand cools. That is 1.3 up from the single prior published release (Δ +1.3) — a directional two-release comparison, not an index trend.
At 68/100 financing stress reads elevated: on the assumed mortgage rate the median home absorbs roughly 75% of median household income in principal and interest. That is a genuine stretch and it limits how far buyers can push — though scarcity, not financing cost, is what sets price here. (Mortgage rate is an explicit assumption — see limitations.)
How 2026 started
Belmar entered 2026 with the signature it has carried: a supply-constrained, fast-clearing single-family market. The structural reads bear that out — Scarcity 95 and Liquidity 98 — and the transaction base is deep enough to measure, with 79 single-family sales on the trailing-twelve-month record.
That is the baseline this review measures the year against: a town where fair listings still move, and where the question is less whether it is cheap than whether a specific home is priced inside the current range.
What changed through 2026
On closed sales through August 31, 2026, the headline is a softer median — read alone, that is the whole story. The table below is the fuller picture: the median sale price fell, median $/sqft rose, and the median home traded smaller.
The homes that sold ran smaller, which moves the median dollar figure down independently of what a foot costs. The move is a shift in the mix of what traded, not a broad repricing of Belmar — read the median and the $/sqft line together.
| Measure | Prior 12 months | Trailing 12 months | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $1,187,500 | $1,115,000 | -6.1% |
| Median $/sqft | $623 | $694 | +11.4% |
| Median home size | 1,819 sqft | 1,521 sqft | -16.4% |
| Single-family sales | 64 | 79 | +15 sales |
The current market signal
As of the latest reads, the structural picture is firm: Scarcity 95, Liquidity 98 and Affordability Stress 68 — all point-in-time. On the supply side, the approved active-market read (as of 2026-09-14) shows 4 single-family homes on the market.
Taken together, the current signal is a tight, liquid, high-priced market with limited on-market choice — not a market visibly loosening.
What to watch from here
Three things carry the rest of the year. First, inventory: whether the current low on-market count builds as more sellers list, which would give buyers more room. Second, the mix: whether larger homes return to the sold set, which would lift the median independent of any price move. Third, rates and absorption: a sustained move in mortgage rates tends to show first in how long homes sit, then in price.
None of these is a forecast. They are the observable levers that would move the next read.
What the data can — and cannot — support
The sold record supports a multi-year read on Belmar prices, so the median and $/sqft comparisons above are on firm evidence. The composition point — the change in the size of what traded — is the honest reading of the median-versus-$/sqft split, not an inference.
The active-listing series is different. It is a short run of recent daily snapshots: enough to state the current on-market level, but not yet enough observed history to call out a recurring within-year pattern or a like-for-like comparison to a year ago. Where a failed capture occurred, it is skipped rather than shown as zero. Index reads are a current snapshot, not a trend. This review states what the data carries and stops there.
The history behind the read.
Liquidity Index · index_score · 3 observed points
Liquidity Index moved +9.62
From 2026-06-12 to 2026-07-27, observed value changed from 83.96 to 93.58.
Active listings · count · 14 observed points
Active listings moved -3
From 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-14, observed value changed from 7 to 4.
| Metric | Prior | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Affordability Stress Index | 68.2 | 71.1 | ↑2.9 |
| Liquidity Index | 89.5 | 93.6 | ↑4.1 |
| Scarcity Index | 89.7 | 93.6 | ↑3.9 |
Liquidity Index moved +4.08
Liquidity Index had the largest current-vs-prior move.
What the read means.
- For buyers: the binding constraint is availability, not headline affordability. Competition concentrates on well-priced, move-in-ready homes in desirable blocks; patience tends to be rewarded mainly where an ask has run ahead of comparable sales.
- For owners: scarcity and quick absorption continue to support values, but this is a town-level baseline — condition, block, and flood exposure still decide where a specific home sits against it.
The signals we'll keep monitoring.
- Whether active inventory builds off its current low base into the back half of the year.
- Whether the size mix of what sells shifts back toward larger homes, which would lift the headline median independent of price per foot.
- Rates and absorption: a sustained move in mortgage rates would show first in days-on-market, then in price.
Where our read could be wrong.
- Rates: the affordability read rests on a mortgage-rate assumption. A sustained move higher would pressure demand first through absorption and days-on-market, then price.
- Inventory expansion: the thesis depends on supply staying scarce. A durable rise in active listings would loosen the structural pressure that is currently holding prices firm.
- Flood & insurance exposure: coastal location carries flood-zone and insurance-cost risk that can re-rate desirability block-by-block; this report does not yet incorporate parcel-level flood data, so it is a known uncovered risk.
- Luxury slowdown: with a meaningful share of dollar volume in the high-end tail, a pullback in luxury demand would weigh on the median more than transaction counts alone would suggest.
- Local affordability ceiling: at the current price level, demand depends on out-of-area and second-home buyers; a broad demand cooling would surface here before it shows in the median.
- Thin samples: single-family $/sqft and the active-listing count rest on modest samples, so short-run readings can move on composition; we weight trend over any single release.
Availability, not headline affordability, is the binding constraint in Belmar. Use the town baseline to frame the ask, then test the specific home — condition, block, and comp fit decide where a given listing should land against it.
Want a read on a specific Belmar property?
Send the address and we'll tell you how it compares with the rest of the town — a direct analysis from our research team, not an automated score.
Reading this into a decision.
- Bidding
- Use the town baseline to frame an offer, then test the specific home — condition, block, and comp fit decide where a given listing lands. Availability, not headline affordability, is the binding constraint, so competition concentrates on well-priced, move-in-ready homes; patience tends to pay where an ask has run ahead of comparable sales.
- Selling
- Scarcity and quick absorption still support values, but price to your home's size and $/sqft rather than the town median — the headline can move on the mix of what sold. Recent clearing has rewarded realistic pricing over aspirational pricing.
- Renovating / Redeveloping
- Underwrite to $/sqft and the specific block, not the town median: size premiums do not always show up in the headline, and the median can fall in a year when per-foot pricing holds. Flood-zone and insurance exposure is a live variable this report does not yet price at the parcel level.
- Underwriting
- This is a Belmar town-and-segment baseline, not a property valuation. Financing stress is real on the stated mortgage-rate assumption, but scarcity — not rates — is what sets price here; the swing factor to watch is inventory, not the median.
- Observed facts — closed-sale prices, dates, and property attributes from Briarwood's proprietary Belmar transaction record (353 single-family sales), and the curated active-market aggregate as of 2026-09-14.
- Derived statistics — medians, distributions, and $/sqft, computed deterministically from those facts (no estimation, no smoothing).
- Proprietary signals — the Liquidity, Scarcity, and Affordability Stress indices, Briarwood computations over the same evidence rather than third-party scores.
- Research interpretation — the Briarwood Research findings, market thesis, competing hypotheses, and conviction; labelled throughout as our reading of the evidence, not fact.
- Forward-looking monitoring — the watch-items and risks, framed as what Briarwood Research will track as data accumulates, not as predictions.
- No external institutional research is cited as proof of any local fact; external macro/framework context, where used, is confined to framing and never to town-specific claims.
Evidence Notes
- Briarwood SOLD comp record for Belmar: 353 sales through 2026-08-31.
- Trailing-12-month window 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-31: 79 sales (prior year 64).
- $/sqft computed over 78 eligibility-screened comps (nominal-deed and outlier rows excluded).
- Active-market read from the approved curated aggregate, as of 2026-09-14.
Limitations
- This is a town-and-segment aggregate, not a property-level valuation.
- The trailing-year median reflects a change in what traded (1,521 vs 1,819 sqft median size) more than a change in price per foot — read the median and $/sqft together.
- The active-listing history is a short run of recent observed snapshots — enough to show the current level, not enough observed history to describe a recurring within-year pattern or a prior-year inventory comparison.
- Index reads are point-in-time; this review does not assert an index trend.
Research disclaimer. Briarwood Research is independent market analysis prepared for informational purposes. It draws on public records (NJ SR1A deed transfers and MOD-IV assessments), third-party data (ATTOM), and Briarwood's own valuation models; figures are estimates, not a licensed appraisal, and nothing here is an offer, a solicitation, or investment advice. Confirm property-level facts before acting on any decision.