Belmar's single-family market, read in the numbers.
A supply-constrained, fast-clearing coastal market where scarcity and liquidity — not affordability — are setting price.
Belmar research starts with the mid-2026 release; we'll add more towns and notes as we cover them.
Scores are public, human-reviewed town signals on a 0–100 scale. For where a specific home sits against them, send us the address.
Belmar Market Signals
Bottom line. A supply-constrained, fast-clearing coastal market where scarcity and liquidity — not affordability — are setting price.
01. Homes are selling fast
Low confidenceWell-priced single-family homes in Belmar are going under contract quickly — faster than the small number of homes for sale would suggest. In the latest complete read, homes that sold typically went under contract in about 18 days.
Why it matters. If you're buying, be ready to move on the right home — the best listings don't last, and lowball offers tend to lose. If you're selling, a fairly priced home should find a buyer without a long wait.
What we're seeing: Median time to contract across recent closings is about 18 days.
Keep in mind: This public report is a town and segment baseline, not a property-specific recommendation.
02. Very few homes are for sale
Low confidenceThe number of single-family homes for sale in Belmar is unusually low for the size of the town. Inventory has tightened further recently. As of the latest read, only about 3 single-family homes are listed for sale.
Why it matters. Tight supply keeps a floor under prices even if demand softens, and it gives sellers the upper hand — buyers simply have fewer options to choose from.
What we're seeing: About 3 active single-family listings (as of 2026-08-14) — a very thin supply for a town this size.
Keep in mind: This public report is a town and segment baseline, not a property-specific recommendation.
03. Monthly costs are stretched at today's rates
Low confidenceAt current mortgage rates, buying a typical Belmar home takes a large share of local income to carry each month. At the assumed mortgage rate, that payment takes roughly 77% of the town's median household income.
Why it matters. The monthly payment — not the sticker price alone — is what's squeezing buyers. It can cap how high bidding goes, even when homes are scarce.
What we're seeing: On the assumed mortgage rate, the payment on a typical home takes roughly 77% of median household income.
Keep in mind: Assumes a specific mortgage rate — a change in rates moves this.
04. Belmar's price appreciation is broad-based
High confidenceBelmar's price appreciation is broad-based — it reflects rising value per square foot, not simply larger homes changing hands.
Why it matters. Broad-based appreciation is more durable than a mix effect: it indicates the market is genuinely re-rating, not just trading a richer set of homes.
What we're seeing: Median sale price is +4.5% year-over-year while median $/sqft is +7.1%, and median home size -17.3%.
Keep in mind: This public report is a town and segment baseline, not a property-specific recommendation.
05. Scarcity, not affordability, remains Belmar's dominant pricing constraint
Moderate confidenceScarcity, not affordability, remains Belmar's dominant pricing constraint despite elevated financing costs.
Why it matters. It identifies the swing factor: on this read, inventory — not mortgage rates — is the variable most likely to change pricing power.
What we're seeing: Median $/sqft is up +7.1% year-over-year in the comparison window, even with financing costs elevated.
Keep in mind: Other readings considered: Compositional shift — a change in the mix of homes selling
- Whether active inventory begins to expand, which would be the first sign of a supply-constrained market loosening.
- Whether price reductions spread across active listings — a rising share would signal the asking-vs-sold gap closing through softer asks rather than higher sales. Our active-listing source does not yet track price-change history, so this is a watch item rather than a measured level.
- Whether days-on-market lengthen, which typically precedes any change in pricing power.
A supply-constrained, fast-clearing coastal market where scarcity and liquidity — not affordability — are setting price.
- 01The median sale price is up ~4.5% year-over-year (median $/sqft +7.1%); the gain is broad-based — price-per-foot is rising, not just the mix of what sold.
- 02The market is structurally tight and fast-clearing (Scarcity 96/100, Liquidity 95/100), which keeps pricing power with sellers.
- 03The top decile of sales (above ~$2,625,000) accounts for about 25% of dollar volume — a meaningful luxury tail behind the median.
- Whether active inventory begins to expand, which would be the first sign of a supply-constrained market loosening.
- Whether price reductions spread across active listings — a rising share would signal the asking-vs-sold gap closing through softer asks rather than higher sales. Our active-listing source does not yet track price-change history, so this is a watch item rather than a measured level.
- Whether days-on-market lengthen, which typically precedes any change in pricing power.
Based on 123 trailing-12-month single-family sales (115 with recorded size for $/sqft), recent data vintage. Town-level aggregate, so conviction is capped below 'High'.
Belmar remains a scarcity-driven, fast-clearing market with resilient single-family pricing; the principal near-term question is whether scarcity holds and demand stays intact as financing costs persist.
What our research found this period.
Briarwood Research's current read is that Belmar is a scarcity-driven, fast-clearing market where pricing power rests on limited supply rather than affordability. The findings below are the evidence-backed conclusions behind that view; the risks and watch-items that would change it follow later in the report.
- Belmar's price appreciation is broad-based — it reflects rising value per square foot, not simply larger homes changing hands.
- Scarcity, not affordability, remains Belmar's dominant pricing constraint despite elevated financing costs.
- A small luxury tail carries a disproportionate share of Belmar's dollar volume.
- 01High confidenceSurprise
Belmar's price appreciation is broad-based — it reflects rising value per square foot, not simply larger homes changing hands.
Evidence- Median sale price is +4.5% year-over-year while median $/sqft is +7.1%, and median home size -17.3%.
- Computed over 115 trailing-12-month single-family sales with recorded size.
Why it matters. Broad-based appreciation is more durable than a mix effect: it indicates the market is genuinely re-rating, not just trading a richer set of homes.
- 02Moderate confidenceSurprise
Scarcity, not affordability, remains Belmar's dominant pricing constraint despite elevated financing costs.
Evidence- Scarcity reads 96/100 and Liquidity 95/100 — limited inventory, fast clearing.
- Affordability stress is only 71/100 on our scale even though financing costs are elevated.
- Median $/sqft is up +7.1% year-over-year in the comparison window, even with financing costs elevated.
Alternative readings- Compositional shift — a change in the mix of homes selling
- Luxury concentration — a few high-end trades are carrying the averages
We currently favor the scarcity interpretation because median $/sqft — not only the mix — was higher year-over-year; a pure composition or luxury-concentration story would not lift $/sqft across the market. We will revisit this if inventory expands or the $/sqft gap closes.
Why it matters. It identifies the swing factor: on this read, inventory — not mortgage rates — is the variable most likely to change pricing power.
- 03Moderate confidenceSurprise
A small luxury tail carries a disproportionate share of Belmar's dollar volume.
Evidence- The top 10% of sales (above ~$2,625,000) account for about 25% of total dollar volume.
- That decile is, by definition, 10% of transactions — so its dollar weight is disproportionate.
Why it matters. The median understates how much of the market's value sits in the high end; luxury demand has outsized influence on aggregate pricing and is a distinct risk vector.
Belmar continues to behave like a supply-constrained and fast-clearing coastal market. Scarcity and liquidity — not affordability — are the forces setting price here.
Prices have proved resilient: the trailing-twelve-month median sits at $1,150,000 across 123 sales, up about 4.5% on the prior year, even as financing costs have stayed elevated. Our Affordability Stress reading is only 71/100 — roughly 77% of median household income to principal and interest on the assumed rate — which says demand for desirable locations is continuing to outweigh affordability pressure rather than break against it.
- The trailing-12-month median sale price rose 4.5% to $1,150,000 (n=123), indicating continued pricing resilience despite higher borrowing costs.
- Sold $/sqft centers near $668/sqft across 115 eligible comps, but the spread is wide — the town median is a weak guide to any single block or condition tier.
At 95/100 the market reads exceptionally liquid: homes are clearing quickly relative to the active inventory, so a fairly priced listing should transact rather than linger. That is 1.2 up from the single prior published release (Δ +1.2) — a directional two-release comparison, not an index trend.
At 96/100 supply reads severely constrained: active listings are very low relative to the town's housing base, which keeps structural pressure under prices even when demand cools. That is 2.6 up from the single prior published release (Δ +2.6) — a directional two-release comparison, not an index trend.
At 71/100 financing stress reads elevated: on the assumed mortgage rate the median home absorbs roughly 77% of median household income in principal and interest. That is a genuine stretch and it limits how far buyers can push — though scarcity, not financing cost, is what sets price here. (Mortgage rate is an explicit assumption — see limitations.)
Market structure
Belmar's recorded transaction base is 65% single-family and 26% condominium (524 sales on file). This is a detached-house market with a smaller attached segment; the report covers the single-family cohort.
The setting is a supply-constrained coastal town — our Scarcity Index reads 96/100, consistent with a limited, largely built-out housing base where new supply is hard to add.
We do not yet have enough evidence to characterise seasonality with confidence.
Where build year is recorded (n=254), 11% of the stock dates to 2000 or later — an older, established housing base with limited recent construction.
Direct buyer-profile and primary- vs second-home characterisation are not asserted: the transaction record does not carry occupancy or buyer-intent fields, so any such claim would be inference rather than evidence.
What happened: prices held their ground
Belmar's single-family median has moved higher across the cycle, from $975,000 in 2023 Q4 to $1,163,750 in 2026 Q2. The line is uneven quarter to quarter, and the volume bars beneath it show the reads rest on real transaction counts, not a handful of sales.
Over the trailing twelve months the median was $1,150,000 across 123 sales — up about 4.5% on the prior year. That the median has held and extended through a period of elevated financing costs is the clearest evidence that demand for the town is outweighing affordability pressure.
Decomposing the move: median price is +4.5% year-over-year while median $/sqft is +7.1% and median size -17.3%. The two rose roughly in step, so the gain is broad-based — this is appreciation, not just a richer mix of homes changing hands.
The shape beneath the median
A single town median hides a wide range. Across 115 eligibility-screened sales, sold $/sqft centers near $668/sqft, but the distribution runs from modest blocks into a substantial luxury tail. The shape — not just the midpoint — is the read: the town median is a weak anchor for any individual home.
On price, the middle 50% of trailing-12-month single-family sales runs $730,000 to $1,500,000 (median $1,115,000), with the 90th percentile at $2,625,000. The top decile alone accounts for about 25% of dollar volume — a luxury segment that moves the average well above the typical sale.
Why prices are sticky: supply and liquidity
Two of Briarwood's proprietary indices explain why the price line has held. Scarcity sits at 96/100 and Liquidity at 95/100 — a market that is both structurally short of inventory and quick to clear. Prices in that configuration do not need improving affordability to stay firm; they need only steady demand.
The full per-index reads — including how each has moved against the prior release — are in the index panel above.
Liquidity & supply
As of 2026-08-14, Belmar carries 3 active single-family listings — too few to quote a reliable on-market days-on-market. Homes that closed recently sold in a median of about 18 days (16 recent closings), so the market is still clearing quickly even with the shelf this thin.
Price-reduction share is reported as not available: the active-listing source does not carry price-change history, and an absence of recorded cuts is not evidence of sellers holding firm.
Months-of-supply and absorption cannot be computed from the current feed: the active snapshot carries no recent closed-sale pace, so we report it as not available rather than derive it from an incomplete denominator.
New-listing flow and expired/withdrawn counts are not captured in the current active feed; those liquidity signals are flagged as not yet available.
| Active-market metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Active listings | 3 |
| Median days on market | not available |
| Median days to sell (recent closings) | 18 days |
| Median asking price | not available |
| Median asking $/sqft | not available |
| Price-cut share | not available |
| Stale (90+ day) share | 9% |
| Months of supply | not available |
Redevelopment & builder demand
New-construction turnover is minimal: among single-family sales with a recorded build year (n=254), 11 were built within three years of sale.
Lot-level teardown and redevelopment signals are not asserted: lot-size is sparsely and unreliably recorded in the current comp set, so a redevelopment-intensity read would be fabricated. This is a priority data gap — redevelopment economics are where Briarwood intends to differentiate, and the signal is defined but not yet evidenced for this town.
Builder Demand and Renovation Spread are tracked as proprietary indices but are not yet scored for this town (they require inputs the current evidence base does not carry); they are monitored, not reported as values.
Property typology
Where bedroom count is recorded (75% of single-family sales), the market tiers cleanly by size. The table reads the price and $/sqft of each tier; note that larger homes carry a higher absolute price but the $/sqft gradient is what isolates location and quality from sheer size.
Segmentation by architectural style (ranch / cape / colonial) and by renovated-vs-dated condition is not available — those fields are essentially unpopulated in the current record, so we do not assert a style- or condition-based breakdown.
| By bedrooms | Sales | Median price | Median $/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 bed or fewer | 49 | $630,000 | $712/sqft |
| 3 bed | 70 | $800,000 | $609/sqft |
| 4 bed | 60 | $1,172,500 | $622/sqft |
| 5+ bed | 75 | $1,650,000 | $666/sqft |
Neighbourhood & micro-market
Insufficient evidenceNamed micro-markets (beach blocks, east/west of key roads, waterfront vs non-waterfront, larger-lot redevelopment pockets) are not segmented in this edition: the subtown, location-tag, and micro-location fields are essentially unpopulated in the current comp record, so any neighbourhood-level claim would be invented. Geographic coordinates are present on 100% of sales, which gives a future path to a defensible coordinate-based cut (distance-to-beach, sub-area) once a reviewed boundary definition is in place — it is deliberately not estimated here.
Renovation economics
Insufficient evidenceA renovated-vs-dated premium cannot be measured: the comp record does not carry a reliable condition or renovation field, and Renovation Spread is not yet scored for this town. Rather than infer a premium from price alone — which would confound size, location, and condition — we report this as insufficient evidence.
The history behind the read.
Scarcity Index · index_score · 3 observed points
Scarcity Index moved +2.57
From 2026-06-12 to 2026-07-27, observed value changed from 91.02 to 93.59.
Active listings · count · 14 observed points
Active listings moved -3
From 2026-07-20 to 2026-08-14, observed value changed from 6 to 3.
| Metric | Prior | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Affordability Stress Index | 68.2 | 71.1 | ↑2.9 |
| Liquidity Index | 89.5 | 93.6 | ↑4.1 |
| Scarcity Index | 89.7 | 93.6 | ↑3.9 |
Liquidity Index moved +4.08
Liquidity Index had the largest current-vs-prior move.
What the read means.
- For buyers: the binding constraint is availability, not headline affordability. Competition concentrates on well-priced, move-in-ready homes in desirable blocks; patience tends to be rewarded mainly where an ask has run ahead of comparable sales.
- For owners: scarcity and quick absorption continue to support values, but this is a town-level baseline — condition, block, and flood exposure still decide where a specific home sits against it.
The signals we'll keep monitoring.
- Whether active inventory begins to expand, which would be the first sign of a supply-constrained market loosening.
- Whether price reductions spread across active listings — a rising share would signal the asking-vs-sold gap closing through softer asks rather than higher sales. Our active-listing source does not yet track price-change history, so this is a watch item rather than a measured level.
- Whether days-on-market lengthen, which typically precedes any change in pricing power.
- Whether the high-end (the $800+/sqft tail) holds its share of transactions, since the luxury segment carries a meaningful part of dollar volume.
- Redevelopment and new-construction activity — tracked via Builder Demand, which Briarwood monitors but does not yet score for this town.
- Whether buyer demand softens if financing costs stay elevated; that would surface first in absorption and days-on-market, not in the headline median.
Where our read could be wrong.
- Rates: the affordability read rests on a mortgage-rate assumption. A sustained move higher would pressure demand first through absorption and days-on-market, then price.
- Inventory expansion: the thesis depends on supply staying scarce. A durable rise in active listings would loosen the structural pressure that is currently holding prices firm.
- Flood & insurance exposure: coastal location carries flood-zone and insurance-cost risk that can re-rate desirability block-by-block; this report does not yet incorporate parcel-level flood data, so it is a known uncovered risk.
- Luxury slowdown: with a meaningful share of dollar volume in the high-end tail, a pullback in luxury demand would weigh on the median more than transaction counts alone would suggest.
- Local affordability ceiling: at the current price level, demand depends on out-of-area and second-home buyers; a broad demand cooling would surface here before it shows in the median.
- Thin samples: single-family $/sqft and the active-listing count rest on modest samples, so short-run readings can move on composition; we weight trend over any single release.
Availability, not headline affordability, is the binding constraint in Belmar. Use the town baseline to frame the ask, then test the specific home — condition, block, and comp fit decide where a given listing should land against it.
Want a read on a specific Belmar property?
Send the address and we'll tell you how it compares with the rest of the town — a direct analysis from our research team, not an automated score.
- Observed facts — closed-sale prices, dates, and property attributes from Briarwood's proprietary Belmar transaction record (338 single-family sales), and the curated active-market aggregate as of 2026-08-14.
- Derived statistics — medians, distributions, and $/sqft, computed deterministically from those facts (no estimation, no smoothing).
- Proprietary signals — the Liquidity, Scarcity, and Affordability Stress indices, Briarwood computations over the same evidence rather than third-party scores.
- Research interpretation — the Briarwood Research findings, market thesis, competing hypotheses, and conviction; labelled throughout as our reading of the evidence, not fact.
- Forward-looking monitoring — the watch-items and risks, framed as what Briarwood Research will track as data accumulates, not as predictions.
- No external institutional research is cited as proof of any local fact; external macro/framework context, where used, is confined to framing and never to town-specific claims.
Evidence Notes
- Briarwood SOLD comp record for Belmar: 338 sales through 2026-07-28.
- Trailing-12-month window 2025-07-28 → 2026-07-28: 123 sales (prior year 90).
- $/sqft computed over 115 eligibility-screened comps (nominal-deed and outlier rows excluded).
- Active-market read from the approved curated aggregate, as of 2026-08-14.
Limitations
- This public report is a town and segment baseline, not a property-specific recommendation.
- The current (partial) quarter is excluded from the price trend; medians cover complete quarters only.
- Aggregate medians blend block, condition, and size; a specific home can sit far from the town median.
- Active inventory is thin (3 listings as of 2026-08-14); on-market reads carry wide error.
- The Affordability Stress reading rests on an explicit mortgage-rate assumption and town median household income; it frames financing stretch, not a forecast.
- Index movements are measured against the prior published release; the public baseline is still building (few observed points), so treat the deltas as directional, not trend.
Research disclaimer. Briarwood Research is independent market analysis prepared for informational purposes. It draws on public records (NJ SR1A deed transfers and MOD-IV assessments), third-party data (ATTOM), and Briarwood's own valuation models; figures are estimates, not a licensed appraisal, and nothing here is an offer, a solicitation, or investment advice. Confirm property-level facts before acting on any decision.